World price of oil and fish production in Morocco: Coupling approach of a MEGC and a Halieutic Model
This article aims to examine the vulnerability of the Moroccan fisheries sector to the increase in the world oil price and the implications that could have on production, profitability of the fishing activities and state of exploited stocks. The proposed approach to achieve this objective is based on the coupling of a fishery model and a Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGEM) with a consideration of the sustainability of fisheries resources using the biological model proposed by Schaefer. The obtained model shows that the fisheries sector is not sensitive enough to the rise in world oil price. Nevertheless, large increases in this price would have positive consequences for the preservation of fishery resources by forcing the fishery production system to reduce its production both in terms of fishing activities and at the level of halio-industrial activities. This situation may threaten the profitability of energy-intensive fishing activities, especially trawlers, and negatively affect purchasing power and food security. However, if world oil price does not exceed 25% of the reference price, the least fuel-intensive vessels would slightly increase their catches, taking advantage of the lower supply of products from other energy-intensive fleets.
Keywords: Bioeconomic model, CGEM, fishing, oil price, production