Abstract

This work examines the impact of rising world prices of fishery products on the production and profitability of fishing activities as well as the state of exploited stocks. For this purpose, a computable general equilibrium model (CGME) coupled with a biological model is used. This model makes it possible to integrate the sustainability of exploited stocks. The results show that the continued increase in world prices for fish products would lead to a sharp increase in production accompanied by a sharp decline in the biomass of exploited species. Thus, once these prices increase by 10%, the results suggest that the average production per species should not exceed 20% of the production of the reference year. These results assume that the "maximum sustainable yield" represents the reference point for fisheries management. In addition, the 15% increase in world prices for fish products would result in a 2% decrease in domestic sardine prices, which will contribute to domestic food security. This same increase could lead to a slight improvement in government revenue (0.4%) and GDP (0.3%).


Keywords: CGEM, sustainable fisheries, world prices, fishery products